We see Christmas procurement planning go wrong in the same handful of ways year after year.
Most of the pitfalls are down to timing and visibility, locking in decisions early without keeping them live. Whereas prices, stock and menus all need treating as a moving target right through to December.
Before we get into it, let’s pause for a second and think about the wise words of Andy at booking system ResDiary (with whom 360 Food Partners has no affiliation) in his recent article 10 Smart Ways to Get Your Restaurant Ready for the Festive Season:
“There is nothing better for a restaurant than increased sales and turnover, and that is exactly what the festive season can provide. However, you will not be able to make the most of it if your profit margins are not optimised. If you have not taken steps to boost your profit margins, all those increased sales will have a reduced effect on your business.”
He’s absolutely right. And it’s not the spirit of the season any of us hope for, especially given the challenging year it’s continued to be.
So, how do you avoid the nightmare before Christmas?
Mistake 1 – Not Accounting for Restaurant Supplier Price Increases
Here’s the thing with unnoticed restaurant supplier price increases. Perhaps you assume a quoted price holds? It rarely does.
This is because supplier pricing moves regularly throughout the year. As a result, you’re already working off outdated numbers by December if a menu costed once in October has been left untouched.
Like it or not, supplier price volatility at Christmas is the norm, compressed into a short, high demand window where impact is felt faster and more acutely.
Mistake 2 – Not Checking Invoices Against Agreed Prices
Prices agreed at negotiation don’t always make it onto the invoice unchanged.
There are factors like:
- Billing errors
- Product substitutions
- Unannounced price rises
For all these reasons, two sites buying the same product from the same supplier in the same month can end up paying very different prices for it.
It’s also why this problem bites hardest Christmas – when order volumes and supplier substitutions both spike – if you don’t have a process in place for catching invoice price discrepancies.
Mistake 3 – Leaving the Christmas Menu Planning and Costing Too Late
Waiting until November to finalise your Christmas menu planning?
This means you’re means costing them against already moving prices.
Christmas menu costing needs to lock in supplier contracts by September, while there’s still time to renegotiate, substitute, or adjust portioning if a key ingredient skyrockets in price.
Mistake 4 – Ordering Non-Perishables Too Close to December
Demand for festive stock surges and availability tightens from November. Plus, there’s the additional issue of harvest pressure this year on potatoes and cocoa, which is expected to squeeze central Christmas menu products.
Realistically, non-perishable stock ordering for Christmas should happen months ahead where storage allows, (which we know is easier said than done for some operators).
This isn’t purely to guarantee stock. Moreover, it’s a smarter way to give suppliers chance to allocate it to you.
Mistake 5 – Treating Christmas Procurement Planning Separately from Menu and Food Safety
The costliest mistake is managing Christmas procurement planning, menu design and compliance as three disconnected conversations.
To be clear, hospitality procurement in 2026 works most effectively as a strategic function tied directly to what’s on the menu and what’s legally compliant to serve. It’s not a cost line handled after the fact.
This is why impactful restaurant profit margin management generates savings at site level, besides on a supplier scorecard.
And the Tacit Sixth Mistake? Battling On Alone
It’s perfectly possible to avoid these mistakes by building food cost control for restaurants into your calendar months earlier, rather than fighting for your life in December.
And if you’re stuck in any or all of these ruts:
- Christmas menu planning while still assuming October prices will hold
- Invoices aren’t being checked line by line
- Unequipped to lock in supplier contracts for optimal restaurant profit margin management, without sacrificing food quality and customer satisfaction
A market-leading outsourced food procurement partner can help you close these gaps before they cost you dearly.
Get in touch with us, at 360 Food Partners, if you need to talk and act on Christmas procurement planning and food cost control for restaurants to mitigate supplier price volatility during the festive season – and year-round.
